Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliatory Escalation
22% Chance
Riyadh responds militarily against Ansar Allah launch sites or logistics nodes in Yemen. The risk is that retaliation restores deterrence, but also invites further attacks on Saudi infrastructure or Red Sea shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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