Possible scenario
Limited Airport Disruption
38% Chance
The explosions are treated as a contained Houthi-linked attack or interception near Riyadh airport rather than a broader strike campaign. Saudi authorities prioritize restoring operations while increasing air-defense alerts around Riyadh and other transport hubs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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