Possible scenario
Expanded Houthi Campaign
27% Chance
The airport explosions become part of a broader Houthi campaign against Saudi transport or energy-adjacent infrastructure. This is plausible given the recent threats against Saudi ships, the Red Sea coast advance, and the earlier airport fuel-tank strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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