Possible scenario
Trade Friction Widens
20% Chance
The Boeing disappointment could become part of a broader deterioration in the trade truce if the summit fails to produce stabilizing language. This would move the issue from a narrow aerospace setback into a modest macro risk event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.