Possible scenario
Backlash Builds Quickly
20% Chance
Labor unions, populist lawmakers, and some state attorneys general use the warning to argue that AI gains are being privatized while wage losses are socialized. This path produces the sharpest near-term market reaction, though still short of a macro crisis because no binding law is immediately enacted.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.5%
- Technology -1.2%
- Finance -0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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