Possible scenario
Pressure Campaign Expands
30% Chance
Washington increases military and sanctions pressure while stopping short of overt strikes. This includes more naval deployments, interdiction warnings, cyber activity, and intelligence sharing with Israel and Gulf partners.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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