Possible scenario
Diplomatic Opening
15% Chance
Iran decides the cost of confrontation is rising and permits a limited IAEA verification process. The U.S. keeps sanctions in place but pauses further military escalation in exchange for constraints on enrichment and access to key sites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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