Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Hegseth's statement reinforces deterrence without immediate military action. Washington keeps carrier rotations, intelligence surveillance, and sanctions pressure in place while avoiding a direct clash with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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