Possible scenario
NATO Posture Hardens
20% Chance
Lithuania may push the incident into a formal NATO and EU security response without crossing into direct combat. The alliance reinforces air policing, rotates additional air-defense systems into the Baltics and increases surveillance of the Belarus border.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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