Possible scenario
Contained Hybrid Pressure
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Lithuania and NATO treat the shootdown as another episode in a persistent Belarus-linked hybrid pressure campaign rather than as a trigger for direct confrontation. Airport disruptions continue intermittently, but air policing, counter-drone defenses and public warnings absorb the immediate risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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