Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
25% Chance
A quieter diplomatic path remains plausible because Belarus and Russia have incentives to probe NATO without triggering a military crisis. Lithuania, Poland and NATO keep defenses elevated, but a restored border-security channel reduces immediate airspace disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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