Possible scenario
Truce Holds Firm
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Beijing and Washington preserve the tariff standstill through January while working-level negotiators keep discussing staged reductions. This fits the recent pattern of truce extensions, delayed chip tariffs, and incremental tariff trimming rather than a comprehensive settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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