Possible scenario
Tech Friction Persists
18% Chance
The tariff truce survives, but strategic technology controls remain the main point of conflict. This outcome is realistic because both governments have shown willingness to separate broad tariff relief from national-security restrictions on advanced chips and AI hardware.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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