Possible scenario
Narrow Trade Deal
25% Chance
Negotiators convert the truce into a narrow commercial agreement focused on politically visible goods flows rather than strategic technology. This is plausible because both governments can claim progress while avoiding the hardest national-security disputes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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