Possible scenario
Wider Network Uncovered
18% Chance
A less likely but serious outcome is that investigators identify handlers, co-conspirators, or overseas links tied to the Manchester plot. This would create a stronger short-term risk-off reaction, but still below crisis scale because it remains a disrupted plot rather than a mass-casualty attack.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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