Possible scenario
Selloff Extends Further
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is another round of bear-steepening as investors demand a larger concession for duration risk. The Moody’s downgrade, BoJ rate hike, and limited size of Treasury buybacks keep foreign and domestic buyers cautious.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -3.9%
- Technology -3.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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