Possible scenario
Policy Calming Works
30% Chance
Treasury and Federal Reserve officials avoid framing the move as a crisis but signal willingness to preserve market functioning. Incremental buybacks, stronger communication, and better auction demand stabilize long-end yields.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +2.4%
- Technology +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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