Possible scenario
Direct Damage Incident
12% Chance
A future Russian drone or fragment causes physical damage inside Moldova, forcing Chisinau to seek emergency help from EU partners. Even without proof of deliberate targeting, the incident would mark a material escalation from airspace violation to damage on Moldovan territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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