Possible scenario
Contained Airspace Incident
55% Chance
Moldova treats the drone incursions as another spillover from Russia's war in Ukraine rather than a direct attack on Moldova. Chisinau issues protests, shares radar data with Kyiv and EU partners, and avoids steps that would create a direct confrontation with Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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