Possible scenario
Targeted Government Curbs
30% Chance
Governments avoid full AI bans but impose licensing, compute logging, and red-team certification requirements for frontier systems. Australia and the EU move first, while the United States relies on executive-agency authority and procurement rules.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Business Services -0.7%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT-2.0%
- AMZN-1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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