Possible scenario
Managed Safety Standstill
35% Chance
The most likely path is a negotiated pause on frontier-agent deployments rather than outright bans. OpenAI, Anthropic, the White House, the UK AI Safety Institute, and Australia’s eSafety Commissioner use the wargame results to justify temporary safeguards while preserving commercial AI services.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.5%
- AMZN-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.