Possible scenario
Fragmented AI Bans
20% Chance
A more disruptive path is a patchwork of emergency bans on autonomous agents or frontier-model deployments in several jurisdictions. Because the United States and Russia previously blocked UN safeguards, global coordination remains weak and companies face conflicting national rules.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.7%
- Business Services -0.9%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
- -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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