Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Expands
25% Chance
The Houthis answer Pakistan's entry with more missile, drone, and Red Sea attacks designed to stretch Saudi air defenses. The conflict still falls short of a region-wide war, but near-term oil, travel, and risk-asset volatility increase.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Consumer Services -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.