Possible scenario
Contained Air Campaign
45% Chance
Pakistan participates in Saudi-led strikes and air defense support, but the conflict remains largely confined to Yemen and southern Saudi airspace. Riyadh uses the Mecca pact to show deterrence while avoiding strikes that would force Iran or other regional actors into direct escalation.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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