Possible scenario
Proxy War Widens
18% Chance
A successful or near-successful attack against defended energy infrastructure pushes Washington toward more direct military action against launch sites and command networks. The conflict remains below a formal U.S.-Iran war, but the risk of miscalculation increases sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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