Possible scenario
Defenses Stabilize Supply
40% Chance
The two Patriot batteries are placed around Saudi and Qatari energy infrastructure quickly enough to reduce the perceived risk of another successful strike. Riyadh, Doha and U.S. Central Command emphasize continuity of oil and LNG exports while additional interceptors are rationed to the highest-value sites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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