Possible scenario
Attacks Continue
30% Chance
The Patriot deployment deters some ballistic threats but does not end the campaign against Gulf energy infrastructure. Houthis and other Iranian-aligned groups adapt by using drones, cruise missiles, decoys or alternative targets that stress limited U.S. interceptor inventories.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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