Possible scenario
House Passes Ban
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Speaker Mike Johnson allows a House vote because Fitzpatrick has identified the minimum 218-member majority needed. Passage would reinforce the September Russian oil sanctions and signal that Congress wants tighter limits on purchases by major buyers such as China and India.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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