Possible scenario
Sullivan Holds Seat
30% Chance
Dan Sullivan overcomes VoteHub's probability shift as Republican turnout improves and undecided voters move back toward the incumbent. The slur controversy and national GOP messaging narrow Peltola's crossover appeal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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