Possible scenario
Race Becomes Contested
16% Chance
The race remains inside recount territory, delaying a final Senate call. Both campaigns challenge ballot categories, while national parties fund legal teams because the seat may affect Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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