Possible scenario
Peltola Narrowly Wins
44% Chance
Mary Peltola converts her VoteHub advantage into a narrow Senate victory, helped by name recognition, crossover independents, and ranked-choice transfers. The earlier slur allegation fades as a decisive factor, while Dan Sullivan struggles to expand beyond the Republican base.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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