Possible scenario
U.S. Convoy Enforcement
38% Chance
Washington treats Trump's declaration as a basis for armed freedom-of-navigation operations rather than immediate regime-change war. The most likely near-term path is a U.S.-led convoy system backed by carriers, destroyers, and Gulf-state logistics, with Iran probing but avoiding full-scale escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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