Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
The declaration may be maximalist bargaining designed to force a rapid settlement rather than a literal annexation claim. Oman, Qatar, the UN, and major Asian oil buyers have strong incentives to broker a pause because both Tehran and Washington face high costs from a wider war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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