Possible scenario
Iran Escalates Maritime War
30% Chance
Tehran concludes that accepting the blockade would be strategically intolerable and intensifies attacks on tankers, escorts, or Gulf infrastructure. This is the highest-probability adverse path because the prior week already showed repeated IRGC strikes and mine-laying despite US escorts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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