Possible scenario
Blockade Contains Iran
35% Chance
The blockade largely works as a coercive containment operation, with US escorts, surveillance aircraft, and allied naval assets preventing Iranian-flagged and Iranian-linked ships from transiting the Strait. Tehran continues threats and harassment but avoids direct lethal contact with US forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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