Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Risk
20% Chance
Israel, the U.S., and Gulf states interpret the nomination as evidence that Iran is rebuilding offensive missile capacity faster than expected. This raises the chance of interdictions, Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked assets, or retaliatory proxy activity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials +1.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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