Possible scenario
Missile Rebuild Continuity
45% Chance
Akhlaghi is confirmed and uses the ministry to accelerate Iran's conventional missile and air-defense rebuilding after the March-April 2026 strikes. Tehran frames the move as deterrence rather than preparation for an immediate direct attack, making this the baseline outcome.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- LMT+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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