Possible scenario
Mediation Restarts Talks
20% Chance
Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Nations push both sides to freeze their mobilizations before the fighting spreads further. The amnesty offer becomes part of a bargaining process rather than only a military tool.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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