Possible scenario
Government Mobilization Holds
35% Chance
The Presidential Leadership Council and internationally recognized government use the amnesty offer to encourage defections while reinforcing Marib, Taiz, and the western coast. Fighting remains intense but contained, and the Houthis do not achieve a decisive breakthrough after their recent territorial gains.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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