Possible scenario
Civil War Escalates
30% Chance
Rival mobilizations turn into a broader military escalation across northern and central Yemen. The Houthis press their advantage using captured weapons, while government-aligned forces rely on tribal recruitment and coalition support to prevent further losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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