Possible scenario
Regulatory Containment
38% Chance
The most likely path is rapid federal containment rather than an immediate shutdown of AI development. The Trump administration, Commerce Department, NIST, and DHS push mandatory reporting, external evaluations, and model-security controls to preempt public backlash after earlier OpenAI and Hugging Face incidents.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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