Possible scenario
Contained AI Disaster
30% Chance
A damaging but contained AI-related incident occurs within the 12-month window executives are reportedly discussing. The event validates warnings from CEOs and UN briefings, but it does not become a systemic financial or national-security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Business Services -0.7%
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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