Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Retaliation
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that the attack requires a visible military response and conducts limited strikes on Houthi missile, drone, or radar sites. The action raises near-term retaliation risk but remains short of a full Yemen war restart.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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