Possible scenario
USMCA-Aligned Pact
30% Chance
A realistic upside case is a focused pact designed not to undercut USMCA origin rules. Mexico could use the agreement to attract Korean EV, battery, electronics, and advanced manufacturing investment while preserving compliance with stricter North American content rules.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- GMM.USD+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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