Possible scenario
Talks Bog Down
20% Chance
The proposal could face resistance from Mexican industrial groups, unions, and policymakers worried about competition from Korean autos, steel, appliances, and electronics. U.S. pressure tied to USMCA content rules would make a fast FTA politically harder for Mexico.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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