Possible scenario
Slow Exploratory Talks
40% Chance
Mexico and South Korea are most likely to convert President Lee's call into exploratory talks rather than a near-term treaty. Claudia Sheinbaum's government has incentives to court Korean investment, but USMCA auto-content negotiations and U.S. scrutiny of transshipment keep the process cautious.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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