Possible scenario
Diplomatic Escalation Follows
22% Chance
The case becomes a formal geopolitical confrontation if NATO and G7 governments publicly tie the operation to Russian intelligence services. This would not be a crisis comparable to military escalation, but it could produce a short-lived risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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