Possible scenario
Probe Broadens Modestly
25% Chance
The DOJ and DHS use the latest charges to justify additional subpoenas, interviews, and voter-file reviews in several battleground states. The expansion remains institutional rather than crisis-level, but it raises short-term political uncertainty into the next news cycle.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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