Possible scenario
Court Challenges Intensify
18% Chance
Defense lawyers and civil-rights groups challenge how DHS obtained and matched voter records, arguing that some referrals were unreliable or politically motivated. This path limits the DOJ's ability to expand the crackdown quickly and shifts attention from criminal conduct to process disputes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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