Possible scenario
Cases Stay Localized
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the DOJ treats the latest 12 charges as part of a narrow enforcement push tied to specific voter files, postal evidence, and individual ballots. Courts proceed case by case, and prosecutors avoid alleging a coordinated national conspiracy without stronger evidence.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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